"Year of the Pitcher"

"The Year of the Pitcher"

That’s what 2010 has been dubbed—and rightfully so. Strikeouts are up. Walks are down. So are home runs, runs scored and batting averages (or on-base percentage if you’re a Sabermetrics nut). Ditto for all the offensive stats. In fact, only stolen bases held steady with 2009, and no relevant stats increased.

While those home runs are sexy, and crooked numbers appease the “casual fan,” it’s pitching that’s important for a ball club to be successful.

Look at the eight playoff teams this year.

Only two teams finished with an ERA over 4: New York at 4.06 and Cincinnati at 4.02 (who not-so-coincidentally led their respective leagues in runs per game). League-average ERA was 4.08 in 2010.

But then consider the pitchers who are leading their teams into October. Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt in Philadelphia—one of the best trio’s in history. Their NLCS opponents: Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez of the Giants. Sabathia, Pettitte and Hughes in New York. Cliff Lee. David Price.

Hell, even if you forget the playoffs, just look at some of the teams who “overachieved” in 2010.

Roy Halladay threw two no-hitters this season

• Atlanta—who had little to no offense, especially without Chipper Jones for most of the year—wound up winning the wild card.
  
• San Diego—picked by many to bring up the rear of the NL West—weren’t eliminated from playoff contention until Game 162.
  
• Oakland—who looked deep in the rebuilding process—hung around with Texas into the All-Star break.

Then others, with strong offenses (think St. Louis, Boston, Colorado, Milwaukee) couldn’t hang around for the full season, largely because of a lack of quality pitching depth.

If you look at the numbers, this year marked a decent improvement for pitchers, but the pendulum has been swinging away from the plate and back to the mound for a number of years now. Runs scored (along with most offensive stats) have been dropping since 2006.

Naturally, pitching stats have gone the opposite direction.

But why was this year so dominant?

Some might suggest it’s got something to do with steroids and P.E.D.’s. I disagree, largely because they can benefit pitchers just as much, if not more, than hitters.

Others claim it’s just the natural swing of things. I can buy that, as one side is constantly looking for the upper hand, and once they get it, the other side will try even harder to counteract that. The natural ebb and flow…yin and yang, if you will.

One of my favorite theories is that of “The Rise of the Cutter,” suggested by Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner and Fangraphs. I highly advise reading the article. It’s short, but informative. It’s just amazing it took 15 years for people to learn from Mariano Rivera.

So in the end, maybe we should have expected 6 ½ no-hitters this year. It really wasn’t all that far-fetched. 2011 should be another dominant year for pitchers, but I wouldn’t anticipate the pendulum swinging much further away from the batters, either.